19. November 2013

Warburg Research Renewed its Price Upgrade for InVision AG from EUR 29.00 to EUR 36.00

Felix Ellmann, analyst at Warburg Research, has upgraded the target share price of InVision AG (ISIN: DE0005859698) from EUR 29.00 to EUR 36.00. The “Buy” rating remains unchanged. Almost four weeks ago, Warburg Research raised its target price for InVision shares from EUR 25.00 to EUR 29.00. On 11th November 2013, InVision AG presented the final results for the first nine months of 2013 at its annual Analyst and Investor Conference held at the German Equity Forum in Frankfurt, Germany. There, the Company also provided insights into its business development. On this basis, Felix Ellmann sees new prospects for revenues and earnings.

In his research report, published on 15th November 2013, Ellmann explains that he has again raised his forecasts based on expectations of higher growth in SaaS/Cloud revenues in 2014. At the same time, Ellmann expects stagnation in the cost base, which leads to an overall increase in the earnings forecasts amid increased visibility.

Ellmann’s revenue estimates to date forecast only moderate revenue growth. A slight decline in the existing license and service business was assumed, with SaaS/Cloud solutions more than compensating for this development but on a moderate level. From today’s perspective, greater revenue growth seems realistic, according to Ellmann, as existing business performance is more stable and the Company expects growth rates in the SaaS/Cloud area that are in the upper double-digit to low triple-digit percentage area. Until now, Warburg Research anticipated a growth rate of 60-70 percent. In particular, this shows that the new business model is gaining a foothold, says Ellmann, and thus, the revenue share of the dynamically growing SaaS/Cloud area could already amount to more than 10 percent in 2013.

With regard to the stagnating cost base, Ellmann explains that at InVision the costs for customer acquisition and the operations of new customers in the cloud solution, as well as for the offering of e-learning courses, are very low. Flanked by this development, the cost base for 2014 is anticipated at just EUR 11 million. Previously, Warburg Research estimated a cost base of EUR 11.4 million. As InVision does not plan to expand its personnel capacity, there is no substantial rise in costs expected in the coming years. According to Ellmann, this momentum offers the opportunity for significant earnings growth in 2014 and beyond.

The complete Warburg Research report, “Cloud is working”, is now available for download from InVision’s website at: https://www.ivx.com/investors/analyst-reports.